Nyika inofanira kudzivisa kupatsanuka
Ino inguva yakanyanya kunetsa kuhupfumi hwenyika netarisiro inotarisirwa kusviba muna 2023.
Matatu masimba ane simba ari kudzosa hupfumi hwenyika: gakava riri pakati peRussia neUkraine, kukosha kwekusimbisa mutemo wemari mukati medambudziko remitengo-yekurarama uye kuenderera uye kuwedzera inflation, uye kudzikira kwehupfumi hweChinese.
Pamisangano yegore negore yeIMF muna Gumiguru, takafungidzira kuti kukura kwepasi rose kuchaderera kubva pa6.0 muzana gore rapfuura kuenda pa3,2 muzana gore rino.Uye, muna 2023, takadzikisa fungidziro yedu kusvika pa2.7 muzana - 0.2 muzana yakaderera pane yaifungidzirwa mwedzi mishoma yapfuura muna Chikunguru.
Isu tinotarisira kudzikira kwepasi rose kuve kwakakura, nyika dzichitora chikamu chimwe muzvitatu chehupfumi hwenyika dziri kuita kondirakiti gore rino kana rinotevera.Hupfumi hukuru hutatu: United States, China, uye nharaunda yeeuro, hucharamba huchidzikama.
Pane mukana mumwe chete muzvina wekuti kukura kwepasi rose gore rinouya kunogona kuwira pasi pe2 muzana - nhoroondo yakaderera.Muchidimbu, zvakaipisisa zvichiri kuuya uye, humwe hupfumi hukuru, hwakaita seGermany, huri kutarisirwa kupinda mukuderera kwehupfumi gore rinouya.
Ngatitarisei hupfumi hukuru pasi rose:
MuUnited States, kuomesa mari uye mamiriro emari zvinoreva kuti kukura kunogona kunge kuri 1 muzana muna 2023.
KuChina, takadzikisa fungidziro yekukura kwegore rinouya kusvika pa4.4 muzana nekuda kwekuderera kwechikamu chezvivakwa, uye kushomeka kwepasi rose.
MuEurozone, dambudziko remagetsi rakakonzerwa nemhirizhonga yeRussia neUkraine iri kutora zvakanyanya, zvichideredza fungidziro yedu yekukura ye2023 kusvika 0.5 muzana.
Kunenge kwose kwose, mitengo iri kukurumidza kukwira, kunyanya iya yezvokudya nemagetsi, iri kukonzera matambudziko makuru kumhuri dzinotambura.
Zvisinei nekudzikira, inflation iri kuramba yakakura uye iri kuramba ichienderera mberi kupfuura zvanga zvichitarisirwa.Inflation yepasi rose yava kutarisirwa kusvika pa9.5 percent muna 2022 isati yadzika kusvika pa4.1 percent mugore ra2024. Inflation iri kuwedzerawo kudarika chikafu nesimba.
Maonero acho anogona kuwedzera kuipa uye kutengeserana kwematongerwo enyika kwave kunetsa zvakanyanya.Hedzino njodzi ina dzinokosha:
Ngozi yekukanganiswa kwemari, yezvemari, kana yezvemari yakakwira zvakanyanya panguva yekusagadzikana kwakanyanya.
Mhirizhonga mumisika yezvemari inogona kukonzera kuti mamiriro emari pasi rose adzikire, uye dhora rekuAmerica riwedzere kusimba.
Inflation inogona, zvakare, kuratidza kuramba ichienderera, kunyanya kana misika yevashandi ikaramba yakasimba zvakanyanya.
Pakupedzisira, kurwisana muUkraine kuchiri kuitika.Kumwe kuwedzera kwaizowedzera simba uye dambudziko rekuchengetedza chikafu.
Kuwedzera kwemitengo yedzvinyiriro kunoramba kuri tyisidziro yapakarepo kubudiriro yazvino neyemunguva yemberi kupfurikidza nokudzvinyirira mihoro chaiyoiyo nokuderedza kugadzikana kwoupfumi hukuru.Mabhanga epakati iye zvino ari kutarisa kudzoreredza kugadzikana kwemitengo, uye nhanho yekusimbisa yakawedzera zvakanyanya.
Pazvinenge zvakakodzera, mutemo wezvemari unofanirwa kuona kuti misika inoramba yakagadzikana.Nekudaro, mabhanga epakati pasirese anofanirwa kuchengetedza ruoko rwakatsiga, negwara remari rakanangana nekudzora inflation.
Kusimba kwedhora rekuAmerica idambudziko guru zvakare.Dhora rave pakusimba kwaro kubva kutanga kwema2000.Parizvino, kusimuka uku kunoratidzika kunonyanya kufambiswa nemasimba akakosha senge kuomeswa kwemitemo yemari muUS uye dambudziko remagetsi.
Mhinduro yakakodzera ndeyekugadzirisa mutemo wemari kuchengetedza kugadzikana kwemitengo, uku uchirega mitengo yekuchinjana ichigadziriswa, kuchengetedza yakakosha mari yekunze inochengeterwa kana mamiriro emari anyanya kuipa.
Sezvo hupfumi hwepasi rose hwakananga kumvura ine madutu, ino ndiyo nguva yekuti vanogadzira mitemo yemisika vari kusimukira vabvise mhanje.
Simba rekutonga maonero eEurope
Maonero egore rinouya anotaridzika asina kunaka.Isu tinoona GDP yeEurozone ichiita chibvumirano che0.1 muzana muna 2023, iri pazasi pekubvumirana.
Nekudaro, kudonha kwakabudirira kwekuda kwesimba - kuchibatsirwa nemwaka inodziya mamiriro ekunze - uye gasi kuchengetedza mazinga ari pedyo ne100 muzana kugona kunoderedza njodzi yekuomerwa kwesimba munguva ino yechando.
Pakazosvika pakati pegore, mamiriro ezvinhu anofanirwa kuita nani sezvo kuderera kwe inflation kunobvumira kuwana muhoro chaiwo uye kudzoreredza muchikamu cheindasitiri.Asi neinenge isina gasi repombi yeRussia inoyerera ichipinda muEurope gore rinouya, kondinendi ichada kutsiva ese akarasika emagetsi.
Saka iyo 2023 macro nyaya ichanyanya kutaurwa nesimba.Maonero akavandudzwa ekugadzira nyukireya nemagetsi emvura akasanganiswa nedhigirii rekuchengetedza simba uye kutsiva peturu kure negasi zvinoreva kuti Europe inogona kusiya gasi reRussia pasina dambudziko rehupfumi.
Tinotarisira kuti inflation ichave yakaderera muna 2023, kunyange zvazvo nguva yakawedzerwa yemitengo yakakwira gore rino inoisa njodzi huru yekukwira kwemitengo.
Uye nekupera kwakazara kwekutengwa kwegasi reRussia, kuedza kweEurope pakuzadza zvakare zvigadzirwa kunogona kukwidza mitengo yegesi muna 2023.
Mufananidzo wekukwira kwemitengo wepakati unotaridzika zvishoma pane wemusoro wenyaya, uye isu tinotarisira kuti uchakwira zvakare muna 2023, avhareji ye3.7 muzana.Iyo yakasimba disinflationary maitiro anouya kubva kuzvinhu uye inonamira yakawanda inosimba mumitengo yesevhisi inogadzirisa maitiro eiyo core inflation.
Non-energy goods inflation yakakwira iye zvino, nekuda kwekuchinja kwekuda, kuramba kuripa nyaya uye kupfuudza kwemitengo yesimba.
Asi kudzikira kwemitengo yezvinhu zvepasi rose, kudzikisira kusawirirana kwezvekutengesa, uye mazinga akakwira eiyo reshiyo-kune-maodha inoratidza kuti shanduko yave pedyo.
Nemasevhisi anomiririra zvikamu zviviri muzvitatu zvepakati, uye anopfuura makumi mana muzana eiyo inflation yakazara, ndipo pachava nenhandare chaiyo yekurwira inflation muna 2023.
Nguva yekutumira: Zvita-16-2022