Nyika Inofanirwa Kudzivirira Kuparadzanisa
Ino inguva yakaoma kwazvo yehupfumi hwenyika dzepasi rose neyekuona inotarisirwa kusviba muna 2023.
Mauto matatu ane simba anodzora hupfumi hwenyika: Iko kukakavara pakati peRussia neUkraine, kudiwa kwekusimbisa mutemo wemari kune mutengo wekutora-kwekunyepedzera uye nekuwedzera uye kufungidzira kwehupfumi hweChinese.
Munguva yeInternational Mari yemari yemari yegore muGumiguru muna Gumiguru, takafungidzira kukura kwepasi rose kuti tinonoke kubva ku26 muzana yegore rapfuura kusvika ku3,2 muzana gore rino. Uye, nekuti 2023, takadzikisa kufanotaura kwedu kuna 2.7 muzana - 0,2 muzana mapoinzi pasi pane kufungidzira mwedzi mishoma yapfuura muna Chikunguru.
Isu tinotarisira kuti kunonoka kwepasirese kuve kwakajeka-kwakavakirwa, nenyika dzinoverengeka kweimwe-yechitatu yehupfumi hwenyika hupfumi gore rino kana rinotevera. Izvo zvitatu zvikuru zvehupfumi: United States, China, uye nzvimbo yeurouro, ichaenderera ichiparadza.
Pane imwe chete mumukana mina kuti kukura kwepasi rose gore rinogona kuwira pasi pe2 muzana - nhoroondo yakaderera. Muchidimbu, zvakanyanyisa kutyisa zvichauya uye, mamwe ehupfumi hombe, dzakadai seGermany, inotarisirwa kupinda pasi pegore rinouya gore rinouya.
Ngatitarisei hupfumi hukuru hwenyika.
MuUnited States, kusimbisa mari uye mamiriro emari zvinoreva kukura kunogona kunge kuri kuita muzana muzana mu 2023.
MuChina, isu takadzikisa kufungidzira kwegore rinouya kusvika ku4,4
Mune iyo eurozone, dambudziko resimba rakakonzerwa neRussia-kupokana neRussia iri kutora dombo rinorema, kuderedza kukura kwedu kuganhurana kwe2023 kusvika 0.5 muzana.
Pamwe kwese, nekukurumidza kumuka mitengo, kunyanya avo vekudya nesimba, vari kukonzera kuoma kwakakura kwemadzimba dzakaipa.
Pasinei nekudzvinyirirwa kunonoka, inflation yekunyepedzera kuri kuratidza yakakura uye kuenderera mberi pane kufungidzirwa. Nhoroondo dzepasi rese rave kutarisirwa kuunganidzira pa 9.5 muzana mu2022 usati wanyengedza kusvika ku4,1 muzana ne2024. Inflation iri zvakare inowedzera kupfuura chikafu uye simba.
Maonero aya aigona kuwedzera kuenda uye kutengeserana kwemitauro Heano njodzi ina dzinokosha:
Njodzi yemari, yemari, kana yemari yemisangano yemisangano yakasimudza zvakanyanya panguva yekusagadzikana kwakanyanya.
Mhirizhonga mumisika yemari inogona kukonzera mamiriro epasi rose emari kuti ashatiridze, uye dhora reUS kusimbisa mberi.
Inflation inogona, zvakare zvakare, inoratidza kuenderera mberi, kunyanya kana misika yekushanda inosiririsa zvakanyanya.
Pakupedzisira, hondo muUkraine ichiri kupisa. Kuwedzera kukwira kwaizowedzera simba uye chikafu chekuchengetedza chikafu.
Kuwedzera Kwemutengo Kumanikidza Kuramba Kunotyisidzira Kwakanyanya Kutyisidzira kune Yazvino Kubudirira uye Kubudirira Kwemangwana nekukanda maComer Chaizvoizvo uye Undermining macroeconsoconsoconomic. Mabhangi epakati aripo parizvino akatarisa pakudzoreredza mutengo kugadzikana, uye kumhanya kwekusimbisa kwakakurudzira zvakapusa.
Pazvinenge zvakakodzera, mutemo wemari unofanirwa kuve nechokwadi chekuti misika inoramba yakagadzikana. Nekudaro, mabhanga epakati akapoterera pasi rose anofanira kuchengeta ruoko rwakatsiga, nemari yemari yakatarisana yakatarisana nekure pakutenderera inflation.
Simba reMadhora eUS idambudziko guru. Dollar yave kusimba kubva pakutanga kubva pakutanga kwa2000. Parizvino, ichi chikwama chinoonekwa zvakanyanya nemauto akakosha sekusimbisa kwemari muUS uye dambudziko resimba.
Mhinduro yakakodzera ndeyekunyora mari yemari kuchengetedza mutengo kugadzikana, uchirega mareti ekuchinjana gadziriso, kuchengetedza kukosha kwekunze kwekunze kana mamiriro emari anowedzera.
Sezvo hupfumi hwenyika hwakananga kumvura yedutu, zvino ndiyo nguva yemusika yemusika muridzi kurova kurwira hatches.
Simba rekudzora maonero eEurope
Iyo yekuona kwegore rinotevera rinotaridzika zvakanaka. Isu tinoona iyo Eurozone's GDP Contracting 0,1 muzana mu 2023, iyo iri pasi pezasi pazasi kubvumirana.
Nekudaro, kubudiswa kwakabudirira mukuda kwesimba - kwakabudirira nemwaka unodziya mamiriro ekunze - uye gasi rekuchengetedza mazinga kusvika pagumi muzana yekugona kuderera njodzi yekufungira zvakaipa pane nguva ino yechando.
Pakazosvika makore, mamiriro acho anofanira kuvandudzwa sekudonha kwekudonha kunobvumira kuti abvumirwe mune chaiyo mairi uye kupora muindasitiri yeindasitiri. Asi pasina chero pombi yeRussia gasi inoyerera muEurope gore rinouya, kondinendi inoda kutsiva zvese zvisina simba zvekushandisa.
Saka iyo 2023 macro nyaya ichanyanya kutaurwa nesimba. Outook yakavandudzwa yeNyukireya uye Hydroelectric yakabuda pamwe nehuremu hwesimba rekuchengetedza simba uye kutsiva kwemafuta kure negesi kunogona kudzima gasi rekuRussia pasina kutambudzika kwehupfumi hwakadzama.
Tinotarisira kuti inflation yekuve yakaderera muna 2023, kunyangwe nguva yakawedzerwa yemitengo yakakwira gore rino rinoisa njodzi huru yekuwedzera inflation.
Uye neyekupedzisira kusvika pakupera kweRussia gasi kunze, kuedza kweEurope pakudzokorora zvigadzirwa kunogona kusundira mitengo yegesi kumusoro muna 2023.
Mufananidzo wekunzwa inflation inotaridzika sediki kupfuura yeiyo musoro nhamba, uye isu tinotarisira kuti ichave yakakwira zvakare muna 2023, inoenderana 3.7 muzana. Maitiro akasimba asingaverengeki anouya kubva kuzvinhu uye ane simba rakasimba mumitengo yebasa ichaita maitiro ekunakidzwa inflation.
Nzvimbo dzisina-simba dzisina simba inflation yakakwira ikozvino, nekuda kwekuchinja kwekuda, kushingairira kuwana nyaya uye kupfupika-kuburikidza nemari yemidziyo.
Asi kuderera kwemitengo yepasi rose come
Nemabatiro anomiririra zvikamu zviviri muzvitatu zve core, uye anopfuura makumi mana muzana muzana ezvekureba, ndipo panhandare yehondo chaiyo ichave muna 2023.
Kutumira Nguva: Dec-16-2022